Seize the Devil and Freeze It in Its Place

Carbon capture and storage, or CCS, is a family of technologies and techniques that enable the capture of CO2 from fuel combustion or industrial processes, the transport of CO2 via ships or pipelines, and its storage underground, in depleted oil and gas fields and deep saline formations. CCS can, therefore, have a unique and vital role to play in the global transition to a sustainable low-carbon economy, in both power generation and industry.

As long as fossil fuels and carbon-intensive industries play dominant roles in our economies, carbon capture and storage (CCS) will remain a critical greenhouse gas reduction solution. This CCS roadmap aims at assisting governments and industry in integrating CCS in their emissions reduction strategies and in creating the conditions for scaled-up deployment of all three components of the CCS chain: CO2 capture, transport and storage. To get us onto the right pathway, this roadmap highlights seven key actions needed in the next seven years to create a solid foundation for deployment of CCS starting by 2020.

IEA analysis shows that CCS is an integral part of any lowest-cost mitigation scenario where long-term global average temperature increases are limited to significantly less than 4 °C, particularly for 2 °C scenarios (2DS). In the 2DS, CCS is widely deployed in both power generation and industrial applications. The total CO2 capture and storage rate must grow from the tens of megatonnes of CO2 captured in 2013 to thousands of megatonnes of CO2 in 2050 in order to address the emissions reduction challenge. A total cumulative mass of approximately 120 GtCO2 would need to be captured and stored between 2015 and 2050, across all regions of the globe.

‌

For CCS to help fulfil the ambitions of the IEA 2DS, this roadmap identifies three time-specific goals for its deployment:

Goal 1: By 2020, the capture of CO2 is successfully demonstrated in at least 30 projects across many sectors, including coal- and gas-fired power generation, gas processing, bioethanol, hydrogen production for chemicals and refining, and DRI. This implies that all of the projects that are currently at an advanced stage of planning are realised and several additional projects are rapidly advanced, leading to over 50 MtCO2 safely and effectively stored per year.

Goal 2: By 2030, CCS is routinely used to reduce emissions in power generation and industry, having been successfully demonstrated in industrial applications including cement manufacture, iron and steel blast furnaces, pulp and paper production, second-generation biofuels and heaters and crackers at refining and chemical sites. This level of activity will lead to the storage of over 2 000 MtCO2/yr.

Goal 3: By 2050, CCS is routinely used to reduce emissions from all applicable processes in power generation and industrial applications at sites around the world, with over 7 000 MtCO2 annually stored in the process.

Key Findings

• Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a critical component in a portfolio of low-carbon energy technologies aimed at combating climate change. Given the dominant role that fossil fuels continue to play in primary energy consumption, the urgency of CCS deployment is only increasing.    
• Under the IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2012 2°C Scenario (2DS), CCS contributes one-sixth of total CO2 emission reductions required in 2050, and 14% of the cumulative emissions reductions through 2050 against a business-as-usual scenario (6DS).
• The individual component technologies required for capture, transport and storage are generally well-understood and, in some cases, technologically mature. However, the largest challenge for CCS deployment is the integration of component technologies into large-scale demonstration projects. Lack of understanding and acceptance of the technology by the public and some stakeholders also contribute to delays and difficulties in deployment. 
• Governments and industry must ensure that the incentive and regulatory frameworks are in place to deliver upwards of 30 operating CCS projects by 2020 across a range of processes and industrial sectors. This would be equivalent to all projects in advanced stages of planning today reaching operation by that time. 
• CCS is not only about electricity generation. Almost half of the CO2 captured between 2015 and 2050 in the 2DS, is from industrial applications (45%). 
• Given their rapid growth in energy demand (70% by 2050), the largest deployment of CCS will need to occur in non-Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. 
• This decade is critical for moving deployment of CCS beyond the demonstration phase in accordance with the 2DS. Mobilising the large amounts of financial resources necessary will depend on the development of strong business models for CCS, which are so far lacking. Urgent action is required from industry and governments to develop such models and to implement incentive frameworks that can help them to drive cost-effective CCS deployment. 

Energy Technology Perspectives 2012:

 

Seven key actions for the next seven years

The next seven years are critical to the accelerated development of CCS, which is necessary to achieve low-carbon stabilisation goals (i.e. limiting long-term global average temperature increase to 2 °C). The seven key actions below are necessary up to 2020 to lay the foundation for scaled-up CCS deployment. They require serious dedication by governments and industry, but are realistic and cover all three elements of the CCS process.

• Introduce financial support mechanisms for demonstration and early deployment of CCS to drive private financing of projects.
• Implement policies that encourage storage exploration, characterisation and development for CCS projects.
• Develop national laws and regulations as well as provisions for multilateral finance that effectively require new-build, base-load, fossil-fuel power generation capacity to be CCS-ready.
• Prove capture systems at pilot scale in industrial applications where CO2 capture has not yet been demonstrated.
• Significantly increase efforts to improve understanding among the public and stakeholders of CCS technology and the importance of its deployment.
• Reduce the cost of electricity from power plants equipped with capture through continued technology development and use of highest possible efficiency power generation cycles.
• Encourage efficient development of CO2 transport infrastructure by anticipating locations of future demand centres and future volumes of CO2.