AN UNINVITED GUST

A big wave smashes into a breakwater at a fishing harbour in Jalaripeta, in Visakhapatnam. (Reuters Photo)

TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 312 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
SHOWS A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE DEEP CONVECTION SURROUNDING THE EYE 
OF THE SYSTEM. CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN WARMING OVER THE 
PAST SIX HOURS AND SUPPORTS THE RECENT DECREASE IN INTENSITY FOR TC 
02B. THE SYSTEM REMAINS A STRONG TROPICAL CYCLONE, AND IS EXPECTED 
TO REMAIN STRONG AS IT MOVES INTO THE NORTHEASTERN COASTAL REGION OF 
INDIA WITHIN THE NEXT 8 TO 10 HOURS. THE EYE REMAINS WELL DEFINED 
AND SYMMETRIC, BUT HAS RECENTLY THINNED FROM THE OUTER PERIMETER OF 
THE DEEP CONVECTION AND THE CENTRAL EYEWALL. THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO 
BE UNDERGOING THE INITIAL PHASE OF AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE, BUT 
IS UNLIKELY TO COMPLETE THE PROCESS PRIOR TO LANDFALL. TC 02B IS 
TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-LAYERED 
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST AND WILL REMAIN ON A STEADY 
TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST FOR THE NEXT 36 HOURS AROUND THE STR. AS THE 
SYSTEM APPROACHES THE COAST, THE LOW LEVEL INFLOW WILL ERODE DUE TO 
THE FRICTIONAL EFFECTS OF LAND ON THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE 
SYSTEM. ONCE THE SYSTEM MAKES LANDFALL, TC 02B IS EXPECTED TO 
RAPIDLY WEAKEN DUE TO FRICTIONAL LAND EFFECTS, AND WILL BE FULLY 
DISSIPATED BY TAU 36. BASED ON THE TIGHT GROUPING OF MODEL GUIDANCE.

Page 1

Time of issue: 1100 hours IST Dated: 12-10-2013

(Red Message)

Bulletin No.: BOB 04/2013/30

Sub: Very Severe Cyclonic Storm ‘PHAILIN’ over westcentral & adjoining northwest Bay of
Bengal: Cyclone Warning for North Andhra Pradesh and Odisha Coast.

The very severe cyclonic storm, PHAILIN over westcentral & adjoining northwest Bay of
Bengal moved northwestwards during past 6 hours with a speed of 15 kmph and lay centred at 0830
hrs IST of today, the 12 th October 2013 over westcentral & adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal near
latitude 17.8 0 N and longitude 86.0 0 E, about 200 km southeast of Gopalpur, 200 km east-southeast
of Kalingapatnam and 280 km southeast of Paradip. It would move northwestwards and cross north
Andhra Pradesh and Odisha coasts between Kalingapatnam and Paradip, close to Gopalpur
(Odisha) by evening of today i.e. the 12 th October, 2013 as a very severe cyclonic storm with a
maximum sustained wind speed of 210-220 kmph gusting to 240 kmph.