Climate change
Addressing the global challenge of climate change will require the efforts of governments, industry and individuals
The situation
According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), warming of the climate system is happening, and it is in large part the result of an increase in greenhouse gas emissions and their concentrations in the atmosphere. The IPCC believes that warming of the climate is likely to lead to extreme weather events becoming more frequent and unpredictable. Results from models assessed by the IPCC suggest that to stand a reasonable chance of limiting warming to no more than 2°C, global carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions need to peak before 2020 and be cut by between 50-85% by 2050.
The challenge
BP projects that with known and probable policy and technology developments, global CO2 emissions from fossil fuels may be 26% higher in 2030 than they were in 2011, partly as a consequence of coal use in rapidly growing economies. These are projections of what we think is likely to happen, not what we would like to see.
More aggressive, but still plausible, energy policy and technology deployment could lead to slower growth in CO2emissions than expected, with greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from energy use falling after 2020 – but probably not enough to limit warming to no more than 2°C. The International Energy Agency has acknowledged that its 450 scenario1, which would put the world on a lower-carbon trajectory, looks increasingly unlikely.
There are several reasons why achieving substantial and rapid GHG emissions reductions will be challenging. Some potentially important lower-carbon technologies – including electric vehicles and carbon capture and storage – still face significant technology, logistical, infrastructure and cost challenges. Concerns about nuclear power have grown in many countries following the Fukushima disaster in Japan. And worries about the cost of renewable technologies have led some governments to reduce their levels of support. In the meantime, the GHG intensity of oil and gas extraction and production looks likely to increase, with the move towards resources that are harder to access.
More aggressive, but still plausible, energy policy and technology deployment could lead to slower growth in CO2emissions than expected, with greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from energy use falling after 2020 – but probably not enough to limit warming to no more than 2°C. The International Energy Agency has acknowledged that its 450 scenario1, which would put the world on a lower-carbon trajectory, looks increasingly unlikely.
There are several reasons why achieving substantial and rapid GHG emissions reductions will be challenging. Some potentially important lower-carbon technologies – including electric vehicles and carbon capture and storage – still face significant technology, logistical, infrastructure and cost challenges. Concerns about nuclear power have grown in many countries following the Fukushima disaster in Japan. And worries about the cost of renewable technologies have led some governments to reduce their levels of support. In the meantime, the GHG intensity of oil and gas extraction and production looks likely to increase, with the move towards resources that are harder to access.
The scale of the challenge is such that it can only be met through governments acting to provide a clear stable framework for the private sector to invest and for consumers to choose wisely. Global economic challenges have reduced the focus of some governments on climate policy, at least in the short term. But the commitment by both developed and developing countries at the UN’s most recent climate change conference in Doha to negotiate an agreement by 2015 that requires action from all countries by 2020, suggests that an emphasis on carbon policy may return.
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