Saturday, April 12, 2014

Malthus' Predictions



  • Every 1.21 sec. a baby is born in India. Every hour 2 971.9 persons are born. 


  • Every 3.40 sec. one person dies in India. Every hour die 1 060.1 persons. 
  • Every hour 1910 persons are added to the population
Issue 1.

There are thousands of villages in the country  for which you have to walk,trek,sail or cross valleys through rope cars. To reach them even once in five years to make them exercise their franchise becomes an arduous task. In just 6 seconds 5 babies take birth and in another 17 seconds 5 persons lose their lives. Millions are mobile and the cities are virtually moving with a mobile population. Other than this people from across the borders from the neighboring countries too flock to this nation. In the given circumstances issuing identity cards to all these is an impossible task. Yes 600 million cards were issued. But at what cost?

The existing cards like ration cards and voter identity cards are sufficient. The former gives a list of all the family members and the later the adults who are above 18. What was the necessity to go for spending billions of rupees of the tax payers' money?

The recent reports from Delhi quoted  that these cards are available for rupees for 500 in open. A unique card? 

We can get ideas from people across the society. But leaving the time tested systems/institutions like the civil supplies and census to a new set   of individuals  who are connected to the net but have a disconnect with the common man is the real problem.

Issue 2.

As we add around 2000 persons every hour what plans are there to provide them safe drinking water, food, shelter, health and  education. The first six  Five year plans were emphasizing on checking the growth of population. Now we are into the 12th. Why do no one in India bother about this serious issue today? The family planning program was at its peak in the 1970's.  Why is that department  defunct now?


Malthus and Population Theories:


  • Thomas Malthus warned that population growth would exceed resource growth, leading to catastrophic checks on overpopulation. This would occur because population grew exponentially while food supply grew arithmetically.
  • Without population control, the population would be reduced by catastrophes such as famine or war according to Malthusian theory.
  • As a solution, Malthus urged moral restraint: people must practice abstinence, sterilization, and have criminal punishments for those who have more children than they can support.
  • Malthusian catastrophes refer to naturally occurring checks on population growth such as famine, disease, or war.
  • These Malthusian catastrophes have not taken place on a global scale due to progress in agricultural technology. However, many argue that future pressures on food production, combined with threats such as global warming, make overpopulation a still more serious threat in the future.




World Population:

  • has reached 7 billion on October 31, 2011
  • is projected to reach 8 billion by 2024
  • has doubled in 40 years from 1959 (3 billion) to 1999 (6 billion)
  • is currently growing at a rate of around 1.14 % per year
  • growth rate reached its peak in the late 1960s, when it was at 2%
  • growth rate is currently declining and is projected to continue to decline in the coming years
  • average annual population change is currently estimated at over 80 million
  • world population will nearly stabilize at just above 10 billion persons after 2062
  • a tremendous change occurred with the industrial revolution: whereas it had taken all of human history up to the year 1800 for world population to reach 1 billion, the second billion was achieved in only 130 years (1930), the third billion in less than 30 years (1959), the fourth billion in 15 years (1974), the fifth billion in 13 years (1987), the sixth billion in 12 years (1999) and the seventh billion in 12 years (2011). During the 20th century alone, the population in the world has grown from 1.65 billion to 6 billion
Pl.visit the population metre below.








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